What are we seeing now is an end of one such Big Cycle and the fall of the current world order. Big Cycle of Rise and Fall of EmpiresĬlassically and currently these three conflict cycles, i.e., the financial/economic one, the internal conflict one, and the external conflict one-are both individually evolving and influencing each other to create the Big Cycle of rises and declines of empires, countries, dynasties, and world orders. The External Conflict:Ĭlassically and currently the rising of one or more foreign powers to become comparable in power to the leading power(s) leads to power struggles, typically external wars, that determine which power(s) will be in control and what the new order will be. The more internal disorder there is the more polarity and fighting there is, which typically leads to some form of civil war. There is a “win at all cost” mentality, which eliminates the compromising and rule-following that is essential for maintaining internal order. The Internal Conflict One: Classically and currently there is great internal conflict over wealth and values gaps that is leading to populism of the right and populism of the left and fights between the sides. History has shown that when the coffers are bare and this sort of money printing takes place, financial weakness is near, and financial weakness causes all sorts of problems and it is the precedesor of declines. This is producing inflation in goods, services, and investment assets. The Financial/Economic:Ĭurrently the world’s leading power (which typically has the leading currency) is spending much more money than it is earning, which is leading it to borrow a lot and print a lot of money to buy the debt, which is reducing the value of the debt and money relative to the value of goods, services, and non-debt investment assets. Three big forces are changing the world order: 1. While most people are now focusing more on the tactical moment-by-moment developments of the Russia-Ukraine-NATO conflict, I am focusing more on the big picture of the changing world order that this conflict is the latest manifestation of, and 2) while most people are looking at this conflict in isolation, I view it as something that has happened many times before in similar historical cases that we can learn from. Changing world order and learning from the history

Let us summarize for you the most important information. Ray Dalio also writes about the big picutre of events, including the situation at the Ukrainian borders.

He founded Bridgewater in 1975 in New York. Ray Dalio is an American billionaire investor and hedge fund manager, who has served as co-chief investment officer of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, since 1985.

Ray dalio changing